SuperData Downgrades Its Month-One Forecast for Super Mario Run from $60 Million to $15 Million
Analysts say the game's always-online requirement and 'heavy-handed' gameplay will impact Nintendo's earnings.
In email correspondence with Shacknews, market analytics firm SuperData Research revised its projected earnings for Super Mario Run from $60 million in its first month, down to between $12 and $15 million.
"Requiring to 'always be online' is prohibitive and the game is still a bit too heavy-handed for quick-play on a phone," a spokesperson for the analyst wrote. "Finally, we anticipate Nintendo to announce a discount after the holidays to keep momentum."
Before the firm received these latest reports, SuperData CEO Joost van Dreunen believed Super Mario Run would generate $60 million in sales from its one-time fee of $9.99 to unlock all levels, citing an opportune release window and nostalgia for Nintendo characters.
Even so, van Dreunen foresaw some obstacles that would prevent the game from leaping the bar set by Niantic's Pokemon Go.
"This [$60 million in one month] is noticeably less than Pokemon GO because Super Mario Run is only released on iOS and not on Android," he wrote in an earlier email.
Market predictions aside, Super Mario Run hit the ground... running. Released just over 24 hours ago, it holds the #1 spots on Apple's Free and Top Grossing sales charts.